We are hitting too many roadblocks with execution of the climate solutions. The progress thus far has been limited. Some areas such as electrification of cars, solar and wind are having a strong momentum, while most others are off course. Here is where we stand on where we are falling behind

No, despite the enormous benefits of climate action, progress is happening far too slowly for the world to hold temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

A graphic showing what needs to happen to halve emissions by 2030.

Significant gains have been made to reduce emissions, such as increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation. However, efforts to phase out unabated coal remain well off-track and must decline five times faster by 2030. Similarly, the share of electric vehicles in light-duty vehicle (LDV) needs to accelerate significantly to help reduce the transport sector’s emissions and reach 75-95% of LDV sales by the end of this decade. Additionally, action must be taken to reverse course in cases, where change is at a standstill or headed in the wrong direction entirely. For instance, the world needs to drastically slow deforestation and increase tree cover gain three times faster by 2030.

Source: World Resources Institute, wri.org

“With wildfires burning more ferociously, droughts lasting longer and hurricanes becoming more intense, scientists agree the monetary toll of climate change will be enormous. In 2020, the cost of getting global warming under control hit 16 trillion and by 2030 it will increase over 20 $trillion. In contrast, the annual global climate investment averaged a meager $632 billion in 2019-20. Every year we don’t take the necessary steps to stop climate change will add another 500 billion US dollars to the cost of climate inaction by 2030. The longer we wait to act, the more it will cost to transform the world economy into being climate friendly.” 

Source: The World counts – cost of climate change

Climate tech is not evolving at the speed and scale that we need for solving the problem. Sustainable innovation needs to be deployed globally faster than ever in cost effective ways to replace fossil based alternatives. Climate technology and innovation are disconnected from existing market systems.

Here are some examples of where technology and market systems do not align to solve the climate challenges at the speed and scale required

Electrification of cars

• There are around two billion cars and trucks in use in the world.
• Annual production capacity is around 100 million vehicles per year.
• Cars and trucks last around 20 years before they go to the junkyard.
• Electric vehicles are “still well under one percent” of the global fleet
• Only two-thirds of the global fleet will be zero emission by 2050

Reducing emissions from Housing and Buildings

Housing is one of the big emitters of GHG. Largest emission reductions rely on rapid decarbonization of electricity grid and improving energy efficiency of the buildings. New housing constructions happen slowly while existing buildings last a long time. Most of the energy related emissions in 2060 will be from housing units that exist today. Benefits from new efficient homes will be partially offset from the emissions related to new construction unless the material production is also decarbonized. Retrofitting buildings along with grid decarbonization, denser urban living with reduced emissions from transportation is critical. Doing so globally is going to take a long time.

Fixing the Food System

Food system is complicated. While lab grown meat alternatives are already in existence, we are conditioned to eat meat and we have a hard time to switch to plant-based diets. We love to eat fish and their global demand is expected to double by 2050. Commercial fishing, deep trawling is impacting ocean ecosystems. More forests are being cleared to satisfy our need for lumber, food, fuel and space.

Heating and Cooling

Rising living standards, population growth, and more frequent and extreme heatwaves are expected to create unprecedented cooling demand in the next decade. Global demand for AC is expected to increase by 40% by 2030 and triple by 2050. Remember, Cooling and Heating creates more carbon emissions, and we are yet to find a way to do this without GHG emissions.

Other Challenges:

• We still have not figured out how to fly with a cleaner fuel, but there are over 16M flights in the sky per year and its only growing
• We have not figured out a way to store the energy for long duration in a cost effective way. Solar and Wind can only provide limited energy until we figure out a way to store it
• We have not figured out affordable alternatives to carbon intensive materials such as Steel, Cement, Plastics, Chemicals etc.

Technology can provide energy efficiency measures that help combat climate change, but consumption growth have mostly outrun any beneficial effects of changes in technology. Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements. However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change.

Source:  EIA.gov, The carbon footprint of household energy use in the United States, PNAS Jul 2020, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922205117

Yes, “Transitioning to a net-zero world is one of the greatest challenges humankind has faced. It calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how we produce, consume, and move about. Progress on climate change remains elusive. We have cultivated a deep dependence on fossil fuels that have been driving Earth’s temperature up for more than a century, creating a problem whose mostly negative impacts are unfolding over more centuries.

Climate change is world's greatest collective action problem, which is when rational, self-interested decisions of individuals make the circumstances of the group worse, and vice versa. Global co-operation for climate action has been lukewarm for the following reasons:

It's rational for an individual country not to drastically reduce greenhouse gases, given most economies are heavily based on energy resources that emit them. Yet, if all nations act that way, most countries would eventually be worse off due to the cumulative impacts of all our emissions. Put another way, what's better for each individual country in isolation is actually worse for the planet as a whole. Conversely, what is worse for each individual country, over time would be better for the planet.

There is also a time disconnect for climate actions and benefits. Enacting policies today to cut greenhouse gas emissions won't have a discernible impact on global warming for decades, if not centuries. That's because we have already locked in significant warming due to our historical emissions. Climate change is cumulative. The longer we wait to address it, the bigger the problem it becomes and the harder it gets to solve, fueling a feedback loop that makes solutions ever more difficult. For governments with 2 to 6 year election cycles, climate policy would have to offer concrete benefits outside of its impact on emissions — think jobs or energy security — to overcome this time disconnect.”

Source: Axios.com